Amarillo, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

746
FXUS64 KAMA 200540
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1240 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

 - Low chance ~10% of storms in the southern Panhandle this evening.

 - Hot temperatures continue with a high likelihood >70% chance
   that heat products will need to be issued for at least
   portions, if not all the Panhandles each day through Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Latest wind obs and radar reflectivity shows a boundary across the
southern Panhandles.  An isolated storm or two is trying to form on
that boundary, but is not expected to last long.  Otherwise,
scattered storms off the mountains and in southern CO/KS may work
their way into the northern Panhandles overnight and into the early
morning hours. While showers look to be on a downward trend, there
is a subtle wave expected to move through between midnight and
sunrise and that`s why we may still have some general storms
overnight, mainly in the north.

A very weak cold front that really is just going to knock us back 3
to 6 degrees from where we`ve been for the highs today.  This will
help keep light winds out of the north.  While it will still be a
hot day with highs in the mid 90s to lower 100s, we may be able to
avoid the Heat Advisory, but it`s going to be close in Palo Duro
Canyon.  While the overall northerly flow is not favorable for storm
development, there may be a weak surface low that sets up this
evening in the south and there`s indication that we could have some
convergence right along I-40 and maybe storms could develop along
that boundary after 7pm this evening.

That should be about it for the storm activity for today and
tonight.  As we head into Friday the center of the high shifts
further east and it will be hotter, with nearly widespread
temperatures in the 100 to 105 range.  The chances of precipitation
look minimal, but there`s always a chance at a pop up storm due to
how hot it will get just about anywhere, but even then it`s less
than 10 percent so not even mentionable in the forecast at this
point.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Saturday is looking very tricky and potentially up in the air as to
how things could go.  On one hand it has the potential to be a
carbon copy of Friday, only hotter, so much that nearly all the
Panhandles would need heat highlights, but there is a hint that the
upper level trough over the Great Lakes that expands down to Florida
may have enough influence for a back door cold front, and by that
it`s really just a modified hot airmass, where highs would still be
well into the 90s and maybe the lower 100s for the far southwest
areas, but with that front, perhaps we get some moisture riding
along that northwest flow that clips the Panhandles, allowing for at
least a low chance (20-30 percent) of showers/storms.  Again there
may be another area of convergence along the southern Panhandles
that allows for isolated to scattered storms to pop along that
boundary Saturday evening.

Sunday through Wednesday we do gradually toy with the ridge
attempting to break down, but still remain mostly under it`s
influence, however that does bring added chances of showers and
storms, at least to the northern Panhandles.  The NBM pops for the
extended to reflect this as they gradually increase each day and
spread further south each day.  Temperatures should peak on Monday
with widespread 100s, but with increased precipitation chances each
day and the gradual breakdown of the ridge highs by next Wednesday
may fail to reach 100 in just about all locations.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Will not rule out the chance of a shower or storm impacting
a terminal, but confidence is too low and will deal with via
amendments. Overall winds will be tame and around 5 to 10 kts for
the most part and directions will vary through the TAF period.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ020-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89